The Austin TX housing market is shifting, no question about it. Prices have come down from the wild post-COVID peak, inventory is way up, and price reductions are everywhere. But calling it a crash misses the real story. This is a market that is normalizing after one of the fastest runups Austin has ever seen.

For buyers who can afford to purchase and plan to stay put, the Austin TX housing market is creating real leverage, especially in the suburbs and especially with new construction. For sellers, the rules are different now. A clean, move-in-ready home that is priced right can still get serious attention. A home that needs work or is priced like it is still 2022 will sit.

Here is what the data says about the Austin metro, Hays County, Kyle, Buda, San Marcos, and Dripping Springs, plus how buyers and sellers can actually win in this market.

Table of Contents

• Austin TX Housing Market: Prices, Sales & Inventory
• Austin TX Housing Market: Correction or Crash?
• Austin TX Housing Market: Rates & Migration
• Austin TX New Construction: Builder Incentives
• Hays County Housing Market: Kyle, Buda & More
• Austin vs. Hays County Housing Market
• How Buyers Can Win in Austin’s Housing Market
• How Sellers Can Win in Austin’s Housing Market

Austin TX Housing Market: Prices, Sales & Inventory

The Austin TX housing market stretches from Round Rock, Georgetown, and Leander in the north down through Buda, Kyle, San Marcos, and the rest of the southern metro. In February 2026, the metro recorded 1,887 home sales, down 3.6% from February 2025.

The median sales price across the Austin metro was about $412,000, down 3.6% year over year. In Travis County and the city of Austin, 664 homes sold at a median price of roughly $540,000, down 2.7% from the prior year.

The bigger story is inventory. There were more than 13,888 homes on the market across the metro, with more than 10,000 listings in Austin and Hays County alone. Active inventory is up 19% year to date compared with the same period in 2025.

Depending on the specific area, the Austin TX housing market has around 4.2 to 5.3 months of inventory. That is the highest supply level we have seen in years. There are simply more sellers competing for fewer buyers, and buyers have noticed.

Austin TX Housing Market: Correction or Crash?

Austin hit its peak median home price in May 2022 at roughly $550,000. Today, the citywide median is closer to $435,000, representing about a 20% to 25% correction from the peak.

That sounds dramatic until you remember what happened in 2021 and 2022. Austin became one of the country’s biggest relocation hubs. Demand was insane, bidding wars were normal, and prices jumped far beyond what was sustainable.

The current Austin TX housing market is not back to pre-COVID affordability, and it may never return to those price points. But the market is becoming more balanced. Buyers are no longer forced to waive every contingency, offer way above list price, or make a decision in a single afternoon.

Market conditions have been fairly steady from 2025 into 2026. Inventory has increased, but median pricing has not fallen off a cliff. That matters. It points to normalization rather than a market collapse.

Austin TX Housing Market: Rates & Migration

Mortgage rates still matter, probably more than any other single affordability factor. Rates were around 5.5% a few weeks earlier, then moved into roughly the 6.25% to 6.5% range in mid-March and early April. That is not ideal for monthly payments, but it does not mean deals are gone.

Seller credits, rate buydowns, and especially builder incentives can change the monthly payment equation. The right negotiation is not always just about getting the lowest purchase price. Sometimes it is about getting closing costs covered or getting a lower interest rate.

Migration into the Austin TX housing market has slowed from the frenzy, but it has not stopped. California remains the top state feeding new residents into Texas. At the same time, about half of Texas population growth is happening from within Texas, with people relocating from Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio.

Texas added about 391,000 people from July 2024 to July 2025, a 1.2% increase. Hays and Williamson counties each grew about 3% over the last year, which is huge for the Austin suburbs.

That is why the suburbs are still growing. People are looking for affordability, more space, access to Austin, and the ability to stretch their budget further than they can in the city.

Austin TX New Construction: Builder Incentives

This is the part of the Austin TX housing market that both buyers and resale sellers need to understand. As of March 2026, about 3,800 of the 14,000 active homes in the area were new construction. That is 27.3% of all active inventory, with most of it concentrated in the suburbs.

In many suburban communities, builders are outnumbering resale listings by about three to one. In Kyle, 53.5% of active listings are new construction. Hutto is above 50%, while Liberty Hill is above 60%.

Builders such as Perry Homes, Lennar, D.R. Horton, Ashton Woods, and others are using incentives aggressively. Some are offering fixed rates around 3.99%, lower adjustable-rate options, closing-cost help, appliance packages, and price reductions.

That can be a massive advantage, but buyers need to look at the full payment, not just the headline rate. New neighborhoods commonly have HOAs, little mature tree cover, and potentially higher property taxes. Many also have MUD or PID assessments that can add $300 to $400 or more per month depending on the community.

New construction can absolutely make sense in the Austin TX housing market, especially when affordability is the priority. Just make sure you compare taxes, assessments, HOA dues, lender terms, incentives, lot size, and resale competition before signing anything.

Hays County Housing Market: Kyle, Buda & More

Hays County is one of the strongest affordability plays in the Austin TX housing market. It includes Buda, Kyle, Driftwood, San Marcos, Dripping Springs, and part of the Wimberley area. Its population is roughly 314,000 and has grown about 26% since 2020.

Kyle: The Affordability Leader

Kyle is the affordability king among these Hays County communities. The median home price was $324,990, down 3% year over year. It had 93 sales in February, 50 median days on market, 5.8 months of inventory, and 542 active listings.

For buyers targeting the $300,000 to $350,000 range, Kyle offers a lot of options, including some opportunities below $300,000 depending on home size and neighborhood. The city continues adding restaurants, shopping, and housing. It also sits roughly 25 to 30 minutes from Austin, depending on where you are going and traffic.

More than half of Kyle’s active inventory is new construction, and 66% of those builders have made price cuts. That creates very real negotiating power for a buyer under $400,000.

Buda: Close In With Rising Supply

Buda sits just south of Austin and generally falls around the $325,000 to $350,000 price range. It is closer to Austin than Kyle, with a typical drive of about 20 minutes, and it is often considered to have stronger school options.

But Buda has a lot of supply. It had more than 500 active listings, up 25% year over year, and average days on market were about 119. In the Austin TX housing market, that means buyers have time to compare, negotiate, and avoid rushing.

San Marcos: A Clear Buyer’s Market

San Marcos had a median home price of $315,500, down 19.8% year over year. It recorded 48 sales, about 95 days on market, 7.6 months of inventory, and 364 active listings.

That is firmly a buyer’s market. San Marcos is also a college town, so its housing numbers can behave differently because leasing is a major part of the local housing picture. Still, it is a strong option for people who want to be roughly 30 to 40 minutes from Austin and close to the halfway point between Austin and San Antonio.

Dripping Springs: The Hill Country Option

Dripping Springs is the premium Hays County market. Its median home price was $600,000, down 6% from the year before. It had 29 sales in February, 116 median days on market, 7.9 months of supply, and 229 active listings.

This is where buyers can find Hill Country scenery, Dripping Springs ISD, master-planned communities such as Headwaters, and in some areas homes with one to five acres. It is a different lifestyle and a higher price point, but the elevated inventory means buyers have room to negotiate here too.

Austin vs. Hays County Housing Market

The Austin TX housing market looks very different when you compare the city to Hays County. Austin’s median home price is around $540,000, while the group of Hays County communities discussed here averages closer to $450,000.

• Austin has about 4.2 months of inventory, compared with more than six months in Hays County.
• Homes average about 88 days on market in Austin and closer to 90 to 100 days in Hays County.
• New construction represents about 14% of Austin inventory and around 40% of inventory in Hays County.
• A similarly sized home in Hays County can often cost $50,000 to $100,000 less than in Austin.

That gap explains why the Austin TX housing market continues to push buyers south and outward. You can still access Austin while getting more house, more options, and often a more manageable monthly payment.

How Buyers Can Win in Austin’s Housing Market

Sellers are not giving homes away, but buyers have leverage. On resale homes, buyers are often able to negotiate roughly $10,000 to $15,000 in value through closing-cost credits, price reductions, or interest-rate buydowns. With new construction, that number can reach $25,000 to $30,000 or more through combined incentives.

A 3.99% fixed builder rate can save roughly $300 to $600 per month compared with prevailing rates on a $350,000 to $400,000 home. That is meaningful, but buyers should still get pre-approved and compare the entire loan structure with a local lender.

The Austin TX housing market can be a great place to buy if you can afford the payment and plan to stay. It is not a great fit for someone planning to move again in six months or even two to three years. With new construction in particular, a five-year horizon gives you a better chance to absorb transaction costs and see a return.

How Sellers Can Win in Austin’s Housing Market

Sellers can still win in the Austin TX housing market, but the property has to earn the buyer’s attention. Buyers are focused on move-in-ready homes. Fresh paint, updated or clean flooring, strong landscaping, good curb appeal, professional photos, and a home that does not need immediate work are the homes getting activity.

The pricing strategy has to include more than sold comparables. You need to understand the active homes buyers can choose from today, including brand-new builder inventory with rate incentives and closing-cost assistance.

If your home needs flooring, paint, repairs, or major updating, that does not mean it cannot sell. It means the price needs to reflect the work. Buyers will absolutely pursue a good deal, but they will not pay move-in-ready pricing for a project when they have 10,000-plus alternatives across Austin and Hays County.

The bottom line is simple: the Austin TX housing market is not crashing. It is competitive, inventory-heavy, and full of opportunity for buyers with a plan. Sellers can still succeed too, but only with realistic pricing, polished presentation, and a clear understanding of the homes they are competing against.